AAPL · Thesis · ⌘2
● live
AAPLConsumer hardware + services · $3.2T mkt cap
Apple Inc., a Services-led re-rating in a hardware shell
Services-led re-rating; iPhone is mature, Services is the multiple expander; net-cash position absorbs cyclical risk.
Segment mix runs roughly iPhone 51% / Services 25% / Other 24%. The Services line carries ~70% gross margin against ~37% on iPhone — every percentage point of mix shift moves the consolidated EBITDA margin meaningfully. The DCF below holds iPhone units flat and lets Services compound at a measured pace.
DCF · BASE · 5Y
| Metric | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 391,000.0 | 410,000.0 | 433,500.0 | 459,000.0 | 487,500.0 | 520,000.0 |
| growth | — | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% |
| EBITDA margin | 30.0% | 30.5% | 31.0% | 31.4% | 31.8% | 32.0% |
| EBITDA | 117,300.0 | 125,050.0 | 134,385.0 | 144,126.0 | 155,025.0 | 166,400.0 |
| Capex | (9,450.0) | (10,000.0) | (10,800.0) | (11,500.0) | (12,200.0) | (13,000.0) |
| Δ NWC | (1,200.0) | (1,400.0) | (1,600.0) | (1,800.0) | (2,000.0) | (2,200.0) |
| Unlevered FCF | 106,650.0 | 113,650.0 | 121,985.0 | 130,826.0 | 140,825.0 | 151,200.0 |
Bear
$32
−18%
Base
$47
+19%
Bull
$61
+55%