ATRM · Thesis · ⌘2● live
ATRMIndustrial services · $2.4B mkt cap
Atrium Holdings, a quietly compounding tollbooth
ATRM operates a network of regulated transload terminals across the inland Mississippi corridor. Take-or-pay contracts with CPI escalators capped at 7.0% are a feature management consistently underplays on calls.
The thesis is straightforward: regulated tollbooth, undermanaged narrative. Street models a flat 4.2% revenue CAGR; we walk Q4/Q1 KPI prints against actual contract step-ups and arrive at the path below.
DCF · BASE · 5Y
| Metric | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 812.0 | 869.6 | 928.3 | 988.0 | 1,047.4 |
| growth | — | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| EBITDA margin | 40.0% | 40.4% | 40.9% | 41.3% | 41.5% |
| EBITDA | 324.8 | 351.3 | 379.7 | 408.0 | 434.7 |
| Capex | (88.0) | (90.0) | (92.0) | (94.0) | (96.0) |
| Δ NWC | (12.4) | (13.1) | (13.6) | (13.8) | (13.6) |
| Unlevered FCF | 224.4 | 248.2 | 274.1 | 300.2 | 325.1 |
Bear
$32
−18%
Base
$47
+19%
Bull
$61
+55%